Research Consultant – Climate-Related Urban Migration

About the Organization

The Life & Peace Institute (LPI) leads a Horn of Africa Regional Programme focused on peace and security dynamics, including research on climate-related urban migration across the region.

Job Summary

In recent years, the relationship between climate change, peace and security has received growing attention. Climate change can act as a threat multiplier, intensifying existing pressures on food, water and livelihoods, deepening inequalities, and contributing to displacement and competition over resources. It does not, however, directly cause violent conflict. Rather, its effects interact with political, social, economic and governance conditions, potentially reinforcing existing grievances and creating new pressures within and between communities. Where conflict is already present, climate-related shocks can further disrupt livelihoods, weaken institutions and make peacebuilding and adaptation more difficult.

Across the Horn of Africa, these dynamics are increasingly visible in changing patterns of human mobility. Drought, flooding, environmental degradation and conflict influence decisions about whether to move, remain, return or move onward. Climate-related mobility is therefore not inherently a source of conflict; its implications for peace and security depend on how movements intersect with access to land, water, services, livelihoods and political representation. The growing movement of people towards urban centres and secondary cities is particularly important, as rapid population change can place additional pressure on urban systems while also creating new opportunities for livelihoods, social integration and cooperation.

Building on LPI's research on climate-related urban migration in Kisumu, Kenya and Baidoa, Somalia, this study will examine how climate, mobility and peace and security dynamics interact in Dire Dawa, Ethiopia. It forms part of a broader comparative research analysis initiative covering four urban contexts across the Horn of Africa; Kisumu, Baidoa, Dire Dawa and Djibouti, with the aim of moving beyond an understanding of migration pathways to examine how climate-related mobility is experienced, managed and negotiated within urban settings, and what this means for social cohesion, governance and conflict prevention in the Horn of Africa region.

Dire Dawa offers a particularly relevant setting for this analysis. As a major transport, trade and industrial centre, the city connects surrounding areas, including East and West Hararghe, with wider mobility corridors towards Djibouti and Somalia. Its diverse population, distinctive inter-community relations and evolving urban pressures provide an important lens through which to examine how population movements interact with access to resources, livelihoods, services and local governance. The study will therefore focus on the pathways through which climate and mobility dynamics shape or are shaped by existing peace and security conditions, generating evidence that can inform context-sensitive policy and programming in Dire Dawa and the wider Horn of Africa.

The research should remain open to the range of ways in which these dynamics interact, including potential risks, resilience and opportunities for social cohesion.

This research initiative will be led by the Life & Peace Institute's Horn of Africa Regional Programme and contribute to knowledge and understanding of peace and security dynamics associated with urban migration in the Horn of Africa.

Purpose

The purpose of this consultancy is to lead on research and to generate evidence and analysis on the relationship between climate-related mobility and peace and security dynamics in Dire Dawa, and to produce practical evidence that can contribute to LPI's broader regional Climate Mobility work.

The Dire Dawa study will form the third of four case studies that will subsequently be synthesised into a regional Climate Mobility Policy Framework.

Objective

The study will examine how climate and environmental change interact with mobility and wider urban dynamics in Dire Dawa, and identify implications for conflict prevention, social cohesion, climate adaptation and urban policy and programming.

Key Research Questions

1. How are climate and environmental changes influencing mobility to, within and from Dire Dawa, and what factors shape people's mobility decisions?
2. How does climate-related mobility interact with population change, livelihoods and access to urban resources and services in Dire Dawa?
3. How do these mobility and urban dynamics interact with governance, political representation and inter-community relations in the city?
4. What role does Dire Dawa play within the wider regional mobility trajectories, including movement towards Djibouti and Somalia and onward migration, and how do climate-related pressures interact with these trajectories?
5. Under what conditions do climate, mobility and urban change contribute to conflict risk, resilience or social cohesion, how do these dynamics affect different social groups, including persons with disabilities? What are the implications for policy and practice?

The consultant is expected to refine these questions where necessary during the inception phase.

Key Responsibilities

Approach and methodology

The study should adopt a mixed-method, participatory and conflict-sensitive approach. The consultant will propose the detailed methodology in consultation with LPI.

The methodology is expected to include, as appropriate:

• Review of relevant literature, policy and secondary data
• Key informant interviews and stakeholder consultations with diverse actors, including government and local authorities, civil society, community representatives, migrants and displaced populations, women, youth, and persons with disabilities (PWDs), to capture differentiated experiences and perspectives on climate, mobility, urban change, peace and security.
• Participatory and/or spatial mapping of relevant climate, mobility, urban, peace and security dynamics, including consideration of how risks, services, resources and opportunities are distributed across different groups and locations.
• Photovoice or other participatory visual methodologies to capture lived experiences of climate, mobility and urban change, ensuring the meaningful and accessible participation of diverse groups, including PWDs and other potentially marginalised populations.
• Engagement with relevant communities and stakeholders
• Analysis of relevant mobility dynamics connecting Dire Dawa with surrounding areas and wider regional corridors.

The study may consider relevant climate hazards affecting Dire Dawa and surrounding areas, including flooding, water stress, drought, heat and other hazards identified through the research.

The consultant should determine which locations, groups, mobility pathways and urban dynamics are most relevant to the research questions.

The research must apply appropriate conflict sensitivity, do-no-harm, gender responsiveness, ethical research, informed consent and safeguarding principles.

Deliverables

The Consultant will be responsible for delivering the following anticipated steps:

1. Inception Report
2. Including the refined research questions, analytical approach, methodology, sampling/participant approach, ethical considerations and workplan.
3. Dire Dawa Climate Mobility Evidence Base
4. A synthesis of relevant secondary and primary evidence generated through the research.
5. Participatory Climate Mobility Map
6. A visual/spatial product illustrating the key climate, mobility, urban and peace and security dynamics emerging from the research.
7. Photovoice / Participatory Visual Storytelling Package
8. A curated set of visual stories and participant perspectives, subject to ethical and safeguarding requirements.
9. Policy Dialogue / Validation Presentation
10. Present preliminary findings at a validation workshop and revise outputs following feedback
11. Maintain regular communication with LPI on progress, risks, emerging findings and methodological issues.
12. Dire Dawa Case Study Report
13. A rigorous research report presenting the evidence, analysis, findings and policy implications, including a concise, policy-oriented tool translating the research findings into key risks, resilience factors, opportunities and potential policy entry points.

The consultant's outputs will subsequently contribute to LPI's regional synthesis of four case studies and support the development of a Climate Mobility Policy Framework for the Horn of Africa. The consultant is therefore expected to present evidence and analysis in a manner that allows findings to be compared across cases while retaining the specificity of Dire Dawa.

Timeframe

The consultancy is expected to be undertaken over a period of up to 50 working days between October and December 2026. The exact allocation of working days will be agreed with the consultant in line with the approved workplan, key deliverables and timelines. An estimated breakdown is provided in the table below.

All research activities and reporting must be conflict-sensitive, gender-responsive and guided by a do-no-harm approach. The Consultant must take particular care when researching issues related to ethnicity, political representation, power-sharing, land, settlement and migration, given their sensitivity and their potential implications for inter-community relations, social cohesion and peace and security in Dire Dawa.

The study should examine how women, men, persons with disabilities and young people experience climate stress, mobility, employment, urban pressure, political participation and conflict risk differently. Research participation must be voluntary, confidential where appropriate and designed to avoid increasing political or inter-community tensions.

Required Qualifications

• A Ph.D. in peace and conflict research, climate change, migration, urban studies, political science, development studies, geography, public policy or another relevant field.
• Strong analytical skills and solid knowledge of research methods (quantitative and qualitative), including participatory research methods.
• Proven experience in qualitative research and data collection and analysis.
• Publication of research related to some combination of the following areas: peace, conflict, migration, climate, environment, and urbanization.
• Proven writing skills in English, fluency in Amharic will be considered an added advantage
• Demonstrated experience with spatial/GIS analysis, participatory mapping or comparable spatial research approaches.
• Strong understanding of Ethiopia's political, socioeconomic and conflict context.
• Knowledge of Dire Dawa, Oromia and Somali regional dynamics is highly desirable.
• Experience conducting research on politically and socially sensitive inter-community dynamics.
• Experience coordinating field researchers or data-collection teams.
• Strong interpersonal and facilitation skills and ability to work collaboratively with local researchers and diverse stakeholders.
• Commitment to ethical, conflict-sensitive and gender-responsive research.
• Willingness and ability to undertake field travel to Dire Dawa and attend consultations with LPI in Nairobi, as required.

Read the full ToR: >> here.

How to Apply

Interested applicants should submit a CV, three writing samples, and a 1 page cover letter that addresses with details of: research experience, experience leading data collection teams, reasons for interest in this project, and the consultant's daily rate.

The application package should be submitted to: procurement.addisababa@life-peace.org by 06 October 2026.

Any questions not covered in this ToR should be directed to Caroline Katuma at caroline.katuma@life-peace.org.